We are back at Caulfield this Saturday for the running of the Caulfield Cup. The rail is moved back to the +3m position after being posted +12m mid-week, and we have a forecast Good 4 track. With a relatively short home straight, we ideally want runners who can get themselves into a good position by the final turn. Let us take a look at each runner and assess their chances.
Kalapour looks tested here, as reflected by his $101 odds.
Buckaroo is the current favourite and we can see why. A recent Caulfield winner, and Joao Moreira (2:1-1) keeps the ride. We have a couple of concerns about where he might find himself in the run and how much work he might have to do late, but he is hard fit and ready for the trip.
Circle Of Fire is a versatile runner who is proven over the 2400m but seems well down on recent form.
Warp Speed is drawn horribly in barrier 19 and will likely need the run.
Huetor was second to Buckaroo two starts back at Caulfield but was then beaten soundly at Flemington last time out. He’s likely to be at the back of the field in the run and would have to be massive to feature.
Warmonger is crippled by a tough barrier draw and seems to like being closer to the speed than we think he might end up.
Eliyass comes to Caulfield in good form with two wins and a minor placing from his last three starts. He has not missed yet on a good track (4:4) and the Waterhouse and Bott combination has to be respected. Drawn in 21, his chances might be dictated by where he can get to in the run. We’re not certain he’s going to get the nice sit on speed he might need here.
Land Legend catches our eye after holding on for a tough win over Zardozi at Randwick. He is proven over the distance (3:1-1) and will enjoy the dry track. We have him as a good each way chance.
Young Werther for Danny O’Brien jumps from barrier 10 and is looking to finally break through at the 2400m, having posted three minor placings from four starts. He should get a nice run and might finish in the top 10, but we do not think this is his race.
Duke De Sessa is another interesting runner, drawn well in barrier 6 and proven over the distance. Probably better with some cut in the ground, watch for him if we get some rain on the day.
Knight’s Choice is likely to be posted wide and dropping back to find cover and will find this tough.
The 12 is Muramasa, a runner we have had in the black book since some strong form during last year’s Spring Carnival. He is drawn ideally in barrier 5 and has proven himself at both Caulfield and over the 2400m. At around the $23 mark currently, he looks like great value.
Zardozi looks set to peak here fifth up and meets Land Legend 3kg better off in the weights. If she can jump well and handle the Caulfield track, we have her as the one to beat.
Coco Sun has been ok recently but will likely be tested here. Might be value for wide exotic players.
Deny Knowledge is another strong runner dealt a harsh blow drawing barrier 17. She drops a massive 6.5kg though, and if she can jump well and cross for a nice transit run, we expect she’ll be right in it at the finish.
Valiant King gets a nice 4.5kg weight drop but we don’t have him in our numbers.
Positivity gets back onto a dry track here and will relish the 2400m. She’s likely to find it tough here racing against the boys but a top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise.
Sayedaty Sadaty looks likely to be one of the main speed influencers, jumping from barrier 2 with 50kg. Coming off a 79-day break makes us wonder about his fitness late and he might be going backwards after the final turn.
Fancy Man will likely struggle. Berkshire Breeze and Francesco Guardi don’t make our top 10.
This looks a very tough race to pick on paper and will likely throw up a few surprises on the day. We have got Zardozi on top to edge out Buckaroo, with Muramasa, Land Legend, Deny Knowledge and Positivity rounding out our top selections. Duke De Sessa is one to watch if we get some rain.
Good luck and enjoy the day.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au