This Saturday sees Caulfield hosting the Caulfield Guineas, a Group 1 event for three-year-olds over 1600m. Good Melbourne weather has us racing on a Good 4 track, with the rail true for the entire circuit. The forecast southerly winds tend to suit the on-pacers, and Caulfield’s tight turns generally favour horses drawn closer to the rail. We take a look at each runner and assess their chances.
Broadsiding is the current race favourite and it is easy to see why. Five wins from his last five starts, undefeated over the distance, and champion jockey James McDonald (4:4) keeps the ride. He has yet to win second up however, and Caulfield is an unknown. He could be unders at $1.55.
Rue De Royale looks well held here despite some reasonable recent form. Limited success at the track and distance.
Evaporate is an interesting runner chasing win number five for his campaign, the only blemish being a first up second at Ballarat. The 1600m and track conditions will suit, and he should get a nice run somewhere in the first couple of pairs. He looks a good each way play at the $10 currently on offer.
Angel Capital is another runner with form that’s hard to knock, chasing a hattrick of wins including a last start victory here at Caulfield. The distance is a query having not gone beyond 1400m to date, and we suspect he’ll end up toward the back with a mountain of work to do late. Capable of a big finish.
It’s often folly to knock a Waterhouse & Bott horse, but we’re going to do that here and take on Mayfair. He’s been racing well recently in quality company albeit without winning, however the wide draw, step out to 1600m and dry track leave us with some question marks.
Wanaruah is another Waterhouse & Bott runner who featured in a tight finish last start at Caulfield, running a 0.6L third being Angel Capital. Drawn well in barrier 3, he’s the likely early leader and can dictate the tempo out front. We think he’s better suited to a track with a bit more give but could be value for exotic players.
Public Attention returns to Caulfield after a last start second to Angel Capital, narrowly edging out Wanaruah. Another runner stepping out to the 1600m, he’s drawn nicely in barrier 4 and maps to have a nice run in transit. The knock for us is what is likely to be a relatively firm surface, but he could surprise.
We find it hard to make a case for Feroce despite a tough fourth place finish behind Angel Capital here last start. Another runner likely better suited to softer going, we don’t think even Billy Egan can pull this off.
Tropicus has a tough draw to overcome jumping from barrier one and we don’t see it being his day.
Vianarra is drawn widest and will likely drop back from the start, looking for luck late to run over them. Still a maiden, this looks too tough.
Private Life is another interesting runner who will be looking to repeat his last start here at Caulfield, sitting midfield before peeling wide in the straight and almost running them down. If he can run the 1600m, we think he is significantly overs at around the $16 mark currently.
While it is hard to go past Broadsiding based on recent form, the price on offer makes him an unattractive betting proposition. We are with Private Life as our best each way value runner, with Evaporate and Angel Capital rounding out the top four.
Happy punting and enjoy your day.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au