The Melbourne Cup Carnival concludes on Saturday with the Champions Stakes Day, and the feature Group 1 TAB Champions Stakes over 2000m. The rail moves out to +8m the entire circuit and the track is expected to be in the Good 4 to Soft 5 range. Light southerly winds may again tend to favour those closer to the speed, and we expect to see a few get into clear running one or two lanes off the rail.
We take a look at each runner and see if we can find a winner.
Without A Fight returns to racing and Flemington, first up since his win at last year’s Melbourne Cup. Flemington, 2000m and Mark Zahra are all ticks, however he does not boast a great first up record with only the one win from seven starts. We do not think he will be far away at the finish but are willing to risk him first up here.
Duke De Sessa drops back to the 2000m following his win in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m. He has been up for a while now, having his eight start for the campaign, and has failed to place at both previous starts over the track and distance. Likely to be in the front half of the field but we don’t have him in our numbers.
Arapaho makes the trip down from NSW where he has shown some mixed form. A handy type at the distance with a 67% strike rate, but this looks too tough up in class here.
Nugget jumps from barrier 8 and will likely settle in the middle to back half of the field. He was not that far away last time out at The Valley finishing 1.2L behind Plenty Of Ammo over 1600m but we can’t see him stepping up to the mark here.
Future History showed that he likes to jump and run, leading all the way last start over 2040m at The Valley. There looks to be a bit more pressure on the speed here than that race, but with five wins and three minor placings from ten starts over the 2000m we can’t put a line through him completely.
Eliyass returns to the Flemington 2000m where he showed some good form finishing a 1.7L third to Via Sistina in October. He rises 6kg here from his last start but has shown his versatility on good, soft and heavy tracks, and should get an economical run on the rail. We expect to see him thereabouts at the finish.
Docklands was beaten 11L by Via Sistina last time out in the Cox Plate, although to be fair so was most of the field. He is one win and a minor placing from two second up starts but we cannot see him turning the tables and are willing to risk him.
Royal Champion steps out to the 2000m after a narrow defeat to Plenty Of Ammo over 1600m at The Valley. He maps to get a run on the speed which seems to be his preferred racing pattern but would look to be tested if we get some rain. We would not be surprised to see him finish in the front half of the field but cannot make a case for him in our top 4.
Kingswood and John Allen look to make this three from three this campaign following a handy 1.8L win over 2000m at Caulfield. He has never missed a place over the distance and if he can get the race run to suit, he might give them a sight late. He looks value at around the $31 mark currently and we would be including him in any exotics.
Via Sistina. I am not sure we need to say much more after her dominant 8L track record victory in the Cox Plate. She maps to get a similar midfield run here and will carry the same 57kg. It is hard to find a negative as she will handle the going whether we get rain or not, although the $1.60 on offer might not tempt too many punters.
Atishu will likely find herself near the back of the field after jumping from barrier 1 although has shown she is capable of rounding them up from there previously. She has performed well on a quick backup before and should take some good condition into the race at start number six for the preparation. We do not think she can win this but with some speed on at the front she might get the right race to see her storming home late.
Deny Knowledge rounds out the field and looks to be one of the main speed influencers. Damian Lane will be looking to cross from barrier 12 and if he gets away cleanly might find himself in a handy one-out, one-back spot. The drop back to 2000m looks to suit, she rises 6.5kg in the weights but this has not troubled her before. Looks to be value at $23 currently.
It is very hard to look past Via Sistina here but there is no value in a $1.60 favourite. We would be inclined to include Atishu, Deny Knowledge and Kingswood in some exotics and hope we get value at the line.
Enjoy the day and happy punting.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au