Group 1 spring racing returns to The Valley on Saturday with the running of the Group 1 Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m). We have a small field of only nine runners contesting the $5m event, and the market is suggesting no clear favouritism.
Blue skies and warm weather in Melbourne have us racing on a Good 4 track, and the rail stays in the true position for both Friday night’s card as well as Saturday. We might see runners move out from the inside lanes by late in the day.
Mr Brightside jumps from barrier 2 and looks to be one of the main speed influencers outside of Pride of Jenni. Last year’s runner up looks to be in similar form this time round, with a handful of second placings to his name this prep. He’s a class horse who is yet to break through at the 2040m from six starts at the distance.
Prognosis is the early market leader and comes into the race first up after a 69-day break. That would normally leave us with a few doubts, but he boasts seven wins and two minor placings from ten first up starts including wins at 2000m after a 112-day break. He’s proven at the distance and will relish a dry track, and the booking of Damian Lane is another boost. He does look like the one to beat.
Kovalica jumps from the outside gate and will likely settle in the second half of the field. His recent form has been ok but we’re happy to risk him.
Royal Patronage will likely jump and run alongside Mr Brightside early on, looking to improve on a series of minor placings in similar grade. He comes into this with good race fitness, but we can’t help thinking his best is in the 1600m range.
Docklands is first up here, jumping from barrier 1 after a 66-day spell. He tackles the 2040m for the first time after a mid-pack finish over 2112m last start and this looks to be equally as tough.
Pride of Jenni loves to jump and run, and the question may be how many lengths they give her before starting the chase. She’s never been out of the money at The Valley and will run the 2040m comfortably, and we have her top four again here.
Via Sistina presents here a last start winner, hanging tough to narrowly beat Buckaroo over 2000m at Flemington. Distance, conditions and class are all ticks, and we expect she’ll be right there at the finish alongside Prognosis.
Jamie Kah gets the ride on Broadsiding who gets a massive 7.5kg weight drop after his last start fourth at Caulfield over 1600m. Untested beyond 1600m we have our doubts about where he’ll be at the finish, but the combination of Kah and a light weight could surprise.
Evaporate rounds out the field, jumping from barrier 6 with 49.5kg under Karis Teetan. He’s 3:3 at The Valley and is having a terrific preparation with four wins and two minor placings. Another runner stepping up to 2040m for the first time, we can’t write him off and might offer some value to exotic punters at around the $21 mark currently.
We think the market has it pretty right with Prognosis and Via Sistina leading the way. Pride Of Jenni is sure to give them something to chase and will likely have punters holding their breath late in the race, and we’re going to side with Evaporate rounding out our top 4.
Good luck punters and remember to gamble responsibly.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au