We’re back at Flemington on Thursday for the running of the Crown Oaks, a Group 1 for 3-year-olds fillies over 2500m. The rail moves out to +5m the entire circuit, the track is a Good, and we’re not expecting this to change despite the possibility of a few showers on Thursday morning. Light southerly winds may tend to favour those closer to the speed, and we expect to see a few get into clear running one or two lanes off the rail. Let’s take a look at each runner and see if we can find a winner.
Treasurethe Moment leads the early market as she looks to make it four on the trot. She looks like she’ll run the distance having gapped them last start over 2000m, Flemington, a dry track and Damian Lane are all ticks. Barrier 12 is perhaps the only slight negative, but she’s shown tactical versatility and with limited speed on paper she should get over to a nice position in running without too much effort. Tough to hold out if she can handle the quick backup.
Too Darn Discreet is another looking to make it four in a row, holding on for a tough win last start over 2000m at Caulfield. If she jumps well, she should get a nice transit in the front half of the field, looking primed to make a late run. If any small knock, she might have to run a bit straighter here late to hold them out.
Harlem Queen will likely jump midfield or thereabouts and sees Flemington for the first time here. Her breeding suggests a slight query as to whether she’ll run out the 2500m, but she’ll appreciate the dry track and is drawn nicely in barrier 5.
Rag Queen is another runner making the trip down from NSW, having posted some reasonable efforts in her last starts. She ran on well over 1800m at Rosehill to finish fourth being El Castello before looking a little flat over 2000m next up. We’re happy to risk here over the longer trip.
Powers Of Opal is having a tidy campaign and should be hard fit at start number six. James McDonald rides, barrier 9 looks well suited for a midfield sit, and we’re finding her hard to knock.
Pleasure Artist looks to be going ok this campaign and presents here at start number five. A dry track and step out in distance look to be key factors and she shapes to be a possible value play for exotics.
Talisay ran on well last start over 2000m but was no match for Treasurethe Moment. They meet again here equals in the weights and it would be hard to see her gain 8L for the win. Appears to like a little cut in the track.
Femminile is drawn wide in barrier 13 and will likely drop back out of the gate. This doesn’t look like the spot to be, and we’ll be happy to risk her.
Killcare Beachgirl returns on the five-day backup since posting a 6L third to Treasurethe Moment on Saturday. She likes the front and will likely find it again here jumping from barrier 2, but we’re expecting to see her get run down again late.
Noises is another likely to be contesting the early lead, but also possibly another that will be tailing off when the pace picks up. Up in weight and distance sees us willing to pass at big odds.
Hurry Curry gets back onto a dry track here, which seems to be her key with both wins coming on Good tracks. She maps to get an economic run in transit from barrier 7 and Joao Moreira taking the reins is another positive. A 19-day gap since her last run is the only slight negative for us and she looks well overs at around $25 currently.
Jye McNeil sticks with Inevitable Truth here having ridden Hurry Curry in her last start. She has been solid recently without setting the track on fire, and it’s hard to see her turning the tables on Treasurethe Moment and Too Darn Discreet.
Placid Pearl makes a sharp rise in grade from a Class 1 at Scone at her last start, although she did run out the 2200m for a strong 2.3L win. She can miss the start and is drawn the carpark is barrier 14 but if this spring has taught us anything its that miracles do happen. We don’t see her winning here against stronger opposition but look for her to be finishing off strongly to possibly come home in the top five or six.
All Kinds Of Folk is the rank outsider of the field as suggested by her form, most recently finishing 10.5L off Treasurethe Moment when jumping at $61. Hard to see that changing here.
We’re with the early market here with Treasurethe Moment very narrowly ahead of Too Darn Discreet and Powers Of Opal, although we don’t think there will be much in it. Hurry Curry rounds out our top four and presents as a strong each way chance. Placid Pearl and Pleasure Artists are two at longer odds who might pop up for some exotic value.
Good luck punters and enjoy a great day of racing.