The 2024 Melbourne Cup is here. The rail is +2m the entire circuit with a forecast Good 4 track, and with warm weather forecast it will only get firmer. Light winds and Flemington’s wide open spaces gives every runner a chance. Let’s take a look at each runner and see if we can find a winner.
Vauban looks well positioned here. Despite being the top weight, he’s only carrying 55.5kg, dropping from 62kg last start. He’ll run the distance without question and will look to atone for his 14th place finish in last year’s Cup. He easily goes into our numbers.
Buckaroo steps out to the 3200m for the first time here after a swooping second to Duke De Sessa in the Caulfield Cup. Flemington will suit his racing pattern, but he’s drawn horribly in barrier 21. Will need luck to go his way late and we’re unsure about how well he’ll run the trip out.
Circle Of Fire is drawn widest of all in barrier 24. A proven winner at the distance but he doesn’t look to be in that same form here. Rough place chance.
Warp Speed is a Japanese raider who will eat up the 3200m with ease. Will want the track bone dry, which he is likely to get with warm temperatures forecast for the day. Relatively poor second-up record sees us willing to risk him.
Kovalica rises in distance tackling the 3200m for the first time. The booking of Damian Lane is a big positive and he’ll be race fit at start five for the campaign, but we’re not sure the race will be run to suit the swoopers.
Sharp ‘N’ Smart is one who mixes his form from race to race. He comes into this off the back of a third-place finish over 2500m at The Valley, making up ground late when the pace quickened. Rough chance to add some value to wide exotic plays.
Just Fine looks to be racing better on softer going lately, which he is unlikely to find here. Happy to risk.
Land Legend is an interesting runner who we’ll be watching closely. Hard fit and in good form, he’s drawn a bit wide but should get in for a reasonable run in transit. We have him in our top four or five.
Absurde returns to Flemington after a seventh-place finish in last year’s Cup. He drops in weight from 61kg to just 52.kg here and is drawn well in barrier 7. If he can find some cover in the run, he might be one to watch late.
Athabascan is a hard one to read. A bit of cut in the track seems to suit him best, but he’ll run the two miles and isn’t the worst here.
The market has Knight’s Choice at a 100/1 outsider and it’s easy to see why. Pass.
Okita Soushi has to be respected after winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m. He appears to be in better form going into this than last year and looks a good chance.
Onesmoothoperator entered conversations after his big win at the Geelong Cup. He could find himself well back in the field again here and will have more traffic to get through, but he’s proven that he can do it before and will run out the 3200m with ease. Top chance.
Zardozi comes into this off a different prep than some, on a three-day backup after dropping back to the 1600m last start at Flemington. Not for us.
Sea King will attract punters after his 3.8L victory last start at Bendigo. He’s drawn a bit awkwardly in barrier 1, but we think he’ll be thereabouts at the finish.
Valiant King would need something special, as would Fancy Man.
Interpretation has had eleven starts at Flemington for just the one minor placing and hasn’t won in 12 months. Pass.
Manzoice has arguably been in better form, and we don’t think he’ll be troubling the bookies here.
Mostly Cloudy looks competitive in lower grades, but this is likely too tough.
We have our doubts about Positivity running out a strong 3200m and think she might end up towards the back of the field.
Saint George is a useful stayer that will run out the 3200m without much difficulty and the rise in trip will likely suit. We don’t think she’ll win but looks possible for a top 10 finish.
The Map enjoys Flemington with a couple of victories from three starts here. She’ll run the distance without a query and gets a featherweight 50kg. The barrier draw could have been kinder to her, but we wouldn’t be leaving her out of any exotics.
Trust In You might be praying for rain.
Picking a winner in a race like the Melbourne Cup is always a challenge with everything needing to go right on the day for even the best horse to come away with the victory. A little luck often helps too. We’re finding it hard to go part Vauban here – he’s fit, in great form, drawn well and will still be running at the finish. Onesmoothoperator and Okita Soushi fill the remainder of our top three. Sea King, Land Legend and Absurde next best, with The Map and Sharp ‘N’ Smart our best roughies.
Good luck punters and enjoy a great day of racing.