We are staying at Ascot on Saturday for the running of the Group 1 Tabtouch Northerly Stakes (1800m). Perth’s weather remains warm, and we expect that the track will be in the Good 3-4 range. The rail is +9m the entire circuit, which will likely make it challenging for runners drawn wide and those coming from the back. We’ll be favouring runners drawn inside and racing on the speed.
Numerian looks ok here. He’s drawn well, looks to get a good midfield run with cover, and doesn’t mind Ascot picking up a win here this time last year. He has a relatively poor second up record however (9:0-3) so we’re prepared to risk him.
Attrition has us scratching our heads. He’s never won or placed at 1800m from two attempts, although has been first past the post at both 1600m and 1900m. He’s ok on a Good track although seems to prefer a bit of give, but he could pop up and surprise.
Bustler jumps from barrier 3 and is likely to get shuffled back. He does like the dry but hasn’t hit to board in two attempts at the distance. Pass.
Casino Seventeen is drawn wide, will likely get midfield at best in the run, and looks too poor to our eye.
Light Infantry Man is another drawn wide but who might have enough gate speed to cross and get a sit somewhere around mid-pack or slightly worse. We don’t see him featuring here.
Marocchino might get across and lead if he can jump well, but his recent form suggests he’ll be outclassed.
Democracy Manifest is likely to see them all during the run and doesn’t excite us based on recent form.
Let’s Galahvant doesn’t look good enough here.
Mojo Rhythm looks true to his odds.
River Rubicon is a no.
Currimundi isn’t the worst roughie here, with his last win coming over this track and distance back in April this year. Barrier 18 is a big blow, but he could put some value into wide exotics.
Zipaway is drawn nicely in barrier 4 and likes Ascot with two wins and three minor placings from nine starts here. He’s placed at the track and trip and has a reasonable record on Good tracks. He’s not in our top four but could be thereabouts at the finish.
Admiration Express is another likely leader, although like Marocchino the mare will have to jump well and cross from barrier 11. She’s 2:2 at the distance and 1:1 the track and trip but doesn’t appear to be in the kind of form that would see her winning here.
Super Smink looks competitive here. She’s been in good form lately and while stepping out to the 1800m for the first time, the way she cut through the field at her last start suggests she’ll run it out. With a much better barrier draw here, we think she can feature.
Socks Nation is another we’re prepare to risk here. She’s been mixing her form a fair bit lately, and we have her around midfield at the finish.
Storyville is our top selection here. The filly is drawn ideally in barrier 1 which should see her pushing towards the front of the pack, she boasts a 50% strike rate at Ascot and presents here as the form horse with two wins from her last two starts. Pike knows his way around Ascot and it wouldn’t surprise to see him put up another winner here.
Russian To The Bar looks well held.
Flower Of Gold doesn’t look good enough.
We’re not finding much to get us excited here but have settled on Storyville and Super Smink as our top two selections. Attrition and Numerian round out our top four, while Zipaway and possibly Currimundi could feature at odds with luck going their way.
Happy punting and remember to gamble responsibly.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au