The Melbourne Cup Carnival commences at Flemington on Saturday, with the feature $2m, Group 1 Penfolds Victoria Derby (2500m) attracting a big field of 18 runners. The rail is true the entire circuit with a forecast Good 4 track, and we are not expecting this to change despite the possibility of a few showers on Friday. A moderate wind is forecast from the north, so we will be looking for runners likely to be tucked in with some cover.
A look at each runner and see if we can find the winner.
El Castello is drawn widest in barrier 18 and would need to do a lot of work early if they want to get over somewhere near the speed. He is arguably the form horse coming into this with four wins from as many starts this campaign, and his breeding suggests he will run the trip despite not going beyond 2000m to date. We wouid be keener with a better draw.
Red Aces looks to have it much nicer jumping from barrier 4 and should find a nice position around the third or fourth pair in running. On paper this looks to be a perfect setup for him to be hitting the line late, and we’ve got him in our top 4.
Keeneland comes into this with some strong recent form and looks to be another who should get a nice run in transit. Hard to knock based on form and will enjoy Flemington.
Goldrush Guru looks to be another class colt in good form and should be in the front half after jumping from barrier 15. He has a big jump in distance going from 1800m last start to 2500m here, but the way he finished off suggests he will run the trip. If we have one very small knock it is that he looks best on a slightly softer track, but will he still be good enough here?
Saint Emilion may be sitting mid-pack during the run, looking to run on late like his last start in Geelong. Distance no problem, just a question of how much traffic he might have in front of him.
Kingofwallstreet is another that is hard to knock on paper. Slight query over his fitness having had only the three career starts sees us risking him.
Politely Dun would need to jump well to avoid sitting well back in the field, and we think he’ll have too much ground to try to make up late.
King Of Thunder should push through on the rail early on and champion jockey James McDonald keeps the ride. The rise in distance looks to suit, but we think he looks unders at $6 currently.
Tenbury Wells has us scratching our head, appearing to mix his form around quite a lot. Some rain would probably suit him best and we see him tested here.
Peru will likely find this tough, expecting to see him with a lot of work to do in the straight.
China Sea looks to be another wishing for rain which would see him come into our numbers. We have him middle of the pack at the finish.
Hot Too Go will want the front but might find that difficult here from barrier 13. We’d be surprised to see him break his maiden here.
Scary looks better at a shorter trip.
Oxford Blue does not have a lot of exposed form with this being only his fourth career start. He might settle somewhere around midfield or slightly worse in the run potentially getting a nice setup if the pace is true. Roughie who we think could put some value into wider exotic plays.
West Indies is another that is hard to assess, but we don’t think the dry track will do him any favours.
Autumnheat doesn’t excite us based on his recent form.
War Ribbon comes into this having only broken his maiden last start with a convincing 3.8L victory over 2260m at Newcastle. The 2500m is a tick, and if he can get some cover during the run this might set up nicely for him. He’s perhaps overs at around $23 currently, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see him thereabouts at the finish.
Cecchetti rounds out the field bringing some moderate form into this at just his fourth career start. Still a maiden, we don’t see that changing here.
Another strong race that we think is very tough to pick on paper. We have landed with Red Aces as our top pick narrowly ahead of Keeneland and El Castello, with War Ribbon and Oxford Blue each-way value plays that we will be including in any exotics.
Good luck punters and remember to gamble responsibly.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au