We are racing at Ascot on Saturday for the running of the Group 1 MCA Polytrack Winterbottom Stakes (1200m). Perth is having some warm weather lately and it would not surprise us to see the forecast Soft 5 track upgraded during the day. The rail is +7m the entire circuit, and the Ascot track generally makes it challenging for runners drawn wide. We will be favouring runners drawn inside and racing on the speed.
Overpass is the early market favourite and loves the Ascot 1200m, winning three from three at the track and distance. He has drawn horribly in 16 here though and would have to do a lot of work early to cross and get near the front, and we are prepared to risk him.
Western Empire presents here second up, where he has a record of six starts for two wins and a minor placing. We have put the pen through him on the basis of him being luckless at the distance (3:0-1) and on a Soft track (4:0-1).
Red Can Man does not look good enough to win this.
Hot Zed is another who looks to be tested here.
Mahabra has made the trip over west for this race and brings some good form into this. He has a decent strike rate at the 1200m and will enjoy the track if it stays in the Soft range. He has drawn nicely in barrier 6 and if he jumps well, should get a nice midfield run in transit. We are expecting him to be right there at the finish.
Saloon Bar would need to be massive jumping from barrier 13 and likely to be coming from a long way back. He’s done similar in the past so we can’t completely rule him out, but we don’t have him in our numbers here.
Man Crush is probably not the worst horse here, but would need to improve significantly to feature.
Snowdome is offering punters double-figure odds and would need a big run to be in the finish here. He will likely be forward of midfield until the pace starts to quicken.
Rope Them In is one runner who will be praying for the track to stay wet, boasting a near-perfect record on Soft going (7:6-1). He’s also pretty handy at the distance with three wins and a minor placing from seven starts and looks a reasonable each way chance.
Boots Like Bruce is likely to find this tough.
Bravo Centurion brings an unblemished from line into this race, boasting six wins from as many starts this campaign. He is unbeaten at the track, distance, class and conditions, and would be close to our on-top selection if he wasn’t drawn in barrier 15. If he is good enough to find the front from there, we think he is well overs at around the $10 mark currently with bookmakers.
Rockin’ Rupert does not t give us a lot of confidence.
Almighty Class looks set for a mid-pack finish to our eye.
Crippalenko is a favourite amongst our Carlton-loving friends, but it is difficult to see him turning the tables on Rope Them In, going down to him by 6.8L last time out.
Lady Laguna had a forget race last start at Flemington but otherwise looked to be building into this campaign. We do not think she is going to get a lot of favours drawn barrier 1 and will likely be worse than midfield in the run, but the booking of recently crowned World’s Best Jockey James McDonald is a plus. We debated this one for a while however ultimately decided to leave her out of our numbers.
Laced Up Heels rounds out the field and that’s about where we think she’ll finish.
The barrier draw can be a cruel part of racing and we are seeing it here with a couple of runners who we rate highly being disadvantaged by wide draws. We have Mahabra on top just ahead of Bravo Centurion, who is likely to give a great sight if he can cross and lead. If Overpass is good enough, he can run top 3 from the wide gate, and Rope Them In is our best each way chance.
Enjoy the day and happy punting.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au
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