We are back at Flemington on Saturday with the running of the Group 1 Howden Australian Guineas for 3-year-olds. The rail is +2m for the entire circuit and we have a Good 4 track forecast. With little rain and moderate temperatures forecast for Melbourne, we’re not expecting much change to this.
The Flemington 1600m tends to favour those drawn inside barrier 10, along with a strong bias towards midfield runners. The long Flemington straight can make it tough for runners to lead the whole way.
Goldrush Guru has had a somewhat indifferent campaign to date, going down by a combined 10+ lengths in his last two starts. He has shown promise with wins over a range of distances but is yet to salute over 1600m. We think he’d be better suited with a bit of give in the track.
Savaglee (NZ) looks a promising colt and presents here third up after a win and a minor placing so far to date this prep. He is another who seems to prefer a softer track than we might see here, and we don’t think his jump and lead racing style will suit.
Feroce has not had a win since April 2024, although has had some minor placings at both Flemington and the 1600m. Barrier 11 and pushing up on the speed doesn’t have us seeing that change here.
Angel Capital is an early market leader, and he comes into this race off the back of a 1.5L win last time out at Caulfield. He is a get back and sprint late type runner, and we think that might work against him here. He is difficult to put a hard line through, but we might risk him to win.
Henlein is another runner who will likely drop back from a wide draw. We think he’s better over further.
Red Aces will be looking for further.
Point And Shoot looks a good chance on paper. He is 1:1 over the 1600m and loves a Good track with three wins and three placing from six starts. Bjorn Baker also seems to be in something of a purple patch at the moment with his runners. The negative for us is where he gets to in the run; jumping from barrier 1 is not ideal in our opinion, and we think he might need some luck to feature in the finish.
Stay Focused doesn’t look to have the class.
Opening Address may run better than his current $51 price suggests, having had previous success at Flemington and one win from one start at the 1600m. He’s second up (1:1) and while drawn wide in barrier 14, he might be able to get in for an economic midfield run. We don’t think he’s the winner, but he could add value to some wide exotic plays.
Ndola cannot be dismissed despite jumping from barrier 12, having come from a long way back last start over 1400m at Flemington to take second behind Sepals. We’re looking for a strong run here and a possible top 3 finish.
Royal Insignia is another looking to overcome a wide barrier draw. He doesn’t have a lot of exposed form to work from but seems to run best when finding himself in the second or third pair, which we don’t think he’ll find here. Jamie Mott riding helps, but he’s not for us.
Sepals is hard to look past. A 75% career strike rate, previous success at Flemington, and he looks set to go on with it here. A good start will be key so he doesn’t get buried on the fence, but he was dominant in his last start over the 1400m at Flemington we have him on top again here.
Savour The Dream has been racing well and boasts a 100% strike rate at the 1600m and has never been out of the money on a Good track. He does take a big step up in grade here and is jumping from barrier 13, but we think he’s overs at his current $31 price.
Detroit City looks better of softer going.
Plymouth would need to improve.
Another Prophet seems to take a few runs to really get firing, so we wonder about him presenting only third up here. The track and distance won’t look to both him, but we think drawing barrier 16 will and he’s unlikely to get the front run we think he’d like.
Statuario also needs a few runs under his belt to fire.
Nostringsattached is not the worst runner here and despite a big step up in grade, could run better than the $61 price currently on offer.
We like the look of Sepals and have him clearly on top here. He should get a nice jump from barrier 3 and a decent run with cover, and we will be looking for him to put them away late if a run presents. Angel Capital and Ndola round out our top 3, while Opening Address is our best roughie.
Enjoy the day, and best of luck finding a few winners.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au