We are commencing the 2025 autumn carnival racing with a preview of the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) at Flemington.
The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit, with the track currently rated a Good 4. With a few showers forecast in Melbourne over the next day or two we could see a downgrade to a Soft 5, which should make for some very even racing.
From our track statistics we would have some slight favouritism to those on the inside rail from barriers 2 and 3, and down the middle of the track in barriers 8 and 9. Leaders look to be strongly favoured, while backmarkers can also make a strong case.
Jumping from barrier 11 we have Mazu, who is first up here after a 105-day break. He’s only seen Flemington once without placing, appears to like a slightly longer distance, and looks rightly placed around the $18 mark.
Next up we have Mornington Glory from the Gavin Bedggood stable. We’re unashamed fans of Gavin how we prepares runners, but we’re still finding it hard to make a case for him here. Barrier 9 is a positive and he’s 5 from 5 over the distance (including 1:1 at the track and distance), but he seems better with a couple of runs under his belt.
Joyful Fortune is second up here for the Hayes boys, and he should be right up on the tempo after jumping from the inside draw. That’s a big positive in our eyes, and he ticks the Flemington straight box as well having won here previously over both 1000m and 1100m. He has failed to fire second up in Australia, but we can’t put the pen through him completely. Probably our pick of the roughies at around $41 currently.
Way To The Stars jumps from barrier 8 and will likely look to set the tempo down the middle of the Flemington straight, tick, tick. He boasts a near-perfect first up record, has won at the track and distance, and comes back to Melbourne after some reasonable trial form in Sydney. Does he have the class to turn the tables on the likes of I Am Me?
Philosopher looks set to be another early speed influencer. He is quite deep into his campaign now and hasn’t set the Flemington straight on fire previously, and we’re looking to pass.
I Am Me has a bit of early market support and it’s easy to see why. An early speed influencer, he has a strong first up record (67% strike rate), likes Flemington (50%), the 1000m (67%) and the current Good rated track (50%). He failed to fire last start on a Soft track, but we’ll forgive him that run and definitely have him in our top 4.
Next up is Benedetta, jumping from barrier 2 after a break of 245 days. She’s been ok across the board, having had previous success at the Flemington 1200m and on a Good track, but we’d prefer to watch her first up after such a long break and wait for her to step out over a slightly longer distance.
Stretan Angel presents here first up, having run a couple of placings from four previous first up starts. Relatively average at Flemington and would have to do a ton of work late (again, seemingly not a bad thing here). We’ll chance her.
Skybird has her first look at the 1000m here, having raced 1200m and beyond in her last campaign. Not the worst here, but we’re finding it hard to get too excited.
Growing Empire is the second favourite in the market currently at around $4 and he ticks quite a few boxes for us here. An extremely consistent colt, he hasn’t missed the podium in 8 starts to date, while winning four of them. The Flemington straight, track conditions and Group 1 company won’t bother him (tick, tick, tick), and he looks like he should be just behind the leaders up the middle. Does he have any negatives? If we had to pick one, we’d have to say lack of exposed form over the 1000m, but trial wins over 800m suggest he has enough top end to be competitive here. Definite top 2 for our money.
The market has Switzerland just ahead of Growing Empire at around the $3 currently, although they look quite similar on paper. Five wins from seven starts, including a handy win over Growing Empire at the Flemington 1200m in November last year. They look very evenly matched in just about every other statistic and we’re finding it a challenge to split the two.
We round out the field with Traffic Warden, another who is first up after a 105-day spell. They’ve had him racing over 1200m and longer for quite a while now, and he might find the 1000m a bit sharp. He does have a relatively solid career resume to date, and we wouldn’t be leaving him out of any first 4 bets.
We see this as a race between the three-year-old colts here in Growing Empire and Switzerland. Forced to choose, we have got Growing Empire just ahead based largely on our preference to see them leading over the Flemington 1000m (out of interest, the Flemington 1200m appears to have a much stronger bias towards midfield runners like Switzerland). I Am Me rounds out our top three, while we do not mind the look of Joyful Fortune as one who could pop up at odds.
Good luck punters and enjoy a great day of racing.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au