We finish up the Melbourne Cup Carnival today with the TAB Champions Stakes Day and the running of the TAB Champions Stakes over 2000m. Melbourne’s forecast is for cool temperatures and rain, so we might see a downgrade of the current Soft 5 track during the day. The rail is +9m the entire circuit after three days of racing and we’re expecting to see some advantage to those up on the speed.
Tom Kitten has been relatively consistent in this preparation without setting the track on fire. He has drawn nicely in barrier 8, but might have a bit too much to do late to feature here. $10 looks about right.
Light Infantry Man generally runs well at Flemington and maps for a nice run in transit, but just doesn’t seem to be going well enough at the moment.
Kovalica travels down from Sydney and gets the services of Damian Lane. He seems to be going ok lately, but we don’t think coming from the back is going to suit the pattern today.
Attrition was beaten 3.4L by Via Sistina last start and it is tough to see that reversing here.
Alenquer surprised a few last start running second to Star Of India over 2040m at Moonee Valley. We’d be surprised to see him repeat that effort again here and we’re happy to risk him.
Pier hit the line strongly over 1600m last start at Randwick and should be suited by the step out to 2000m here. He’s drawn well in barrier 6, should get a nice run in transit, and will like the sting out of the ground. One of the dangers.
Golden Path has been racing consistently, other than a forget run two back at this track and distance. Will likely be looking to control the race from the front and will be giving himself every chance. Looks a good each-way bet.
Point King has a great second-up record, but it’s hard to see him doing much here after having a year off.
You can’t knock Zambardo’s recent form and overall career record, although he takes a massive step up here from BM78 grade to Group 1. Will be looking to give them something to chase, but couldn’t cause a major upset here, could he?
Via Sistina is the odds-on early market favourite and it’s easy to see the mare running well again here. If there’s any knock, it’s the slightly sticky draw in barrier 10, but that’s probably not the worst thing in this race. Rates on top.
Benagil rounds out the field and would need to improve to trouble them.
It’s hard to go past the market with Via Sistina. She loves Flemington, loves the 2000m, loves a wet track, and looks the one to beat. Pier next best, and Golden Path could be value at odds. We’ll be watching Zambardo closely to see how he handles the rise to Group 1 level, and can’t completely toss him based on form.
Have a great day, punters.