We’re racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday with the 105th running of the Ladbrokes Cox Plate over 2040m. The rail will be in the true position for the entire circuit, with the track currently rated a Good 4. There might be a few showers around in Melbourne, but hopefully not until later in the evening and they shouldn’t impact the racing here. From our track statistics we can see some bias towards midfield runners and those generally drawn barrier 5 or inside, with backmarkers typically having a tougher time with the short straight.
Light Infantry Man looks to have it stacked up against him, jumping from widest in barrier 9 and not showing great recent form. We’re happy to risk him.
Antino looks to be building into this prep quite nicely, with a last start second behind Sir Delius. He’s drawn nicely in barrier 6 and he’ll appreciate the Good track, while Shinn’s 17% strike rate at The Valley this season will definitely appeal to many. Looks good at around the $4 mark.
Attrition is one that punters don’t seem to like early, with odds of around $34 on offer as we write this. His form on paper looks relatively good having placed at odds in his last three starts, however he doesn’t have the best record in this class and would need to lift over the distance.
Buckaroo is another who is relatively friendless in early betting, although we’d be quite happy to have a small nibble at the $14 currently on offer. Ignoring his last start 3.8L loss to Globe (scratched here) at Caulfield, he’s been racing quite well and is drawn well in barrier 4. There’s others to like in this race, but we won’t be completely tossing him.
Via Sistina is the early money favourite, teaming up with James McDonald to be rated a $2.20 chance. Drawn well, a perfect record at The Valley (albeit from only the one start) and she does look good here.
Damian Lane keeps the steer here on Treasurethe Moment, coming back to The Valley after her last start second to Globe over 2000m at Caulfield earlier in the month. We like this mare a lot, but can’t help thinking she’d be better placed a bit further away from the fence (barrier 1) to allow her to find some cover in running. She’s likely to be setting the early tempo and will be right there in the finish, so we’ll keep her in our top four.
Aeliana is one that’s a little difficult to get a read on, showing a bit of versatility over a range of distances and track conditions. Her last start was a bit of a forgive run at Flemington at the start of the month, although she had been in good form prior to that. Softer tracks seem to favour her a bit more than dry and she’s drawn relatively wide in barrier 7, although in quite a small field this might not impact that much. We’re on the fence here, but likely a mid-pack finish in our view.
Nepotism rounds out this small field, with the three-year-old colt rising to the 2040m trip in only his seventh career start. He does look like one who goes back and runs on late, which is unlikely to suit the pattern at Moonee Valley. We’re happy to watch him for now.
We’re with the early market here with Via Sistina and Treasurethe Moment our top two rated chances. If Buckaroo can jump and run from barrier 4 he might look better than his current odds suggest, and Aeliana rounds out our top four selections.
Good luck punters and enjoy a great day of racing.