Thursday sees us back at Flemington for Crown Oaks Day and the running of the G1 Oaks for three-year-old fillies. The track is currently rated a Soft 5 and we might even see an upgrade during the day with relatively warm weather forecast for Melbourne. The rail is +6m for the entire circuit after two days of racing so far this carnival, giving a slight advantage to the on-pace runners.
Getta Good Feeling is our odds-on favourite following her last-start victory at the Group 2 Wakeful on Saturday. On the quick back-up, she’s drawn ideally in barrier 4 and should get a nice run in transit. Perhaps the only question mark is the step out to 2500m, but she showed no signs of slowing down at the post on Saturday.
The Pearls comes down from Sydney to contest this and has been racing consistently this prep. She’s yet to show much on soft ground and is drawn outside in barrier 12, although we can’t completely toss her with James McDonald booked for the ride.
Spicy Lu is another last start winner, leading from start to finish over 2000m at Caulfield in October. We’re not convinced that she’s a 2500m horse from the way she went to the line over 2000m, but she’s drawn better here is barrier 7 and might not need to do so much work early to find a place in the running. The $10 on offer currently looks about right.
Just A Journey ran second to Spicy Lu last start at Caulfield and meets her again here 1kg worse in the weights. She’s the likely speed influence here and could control the race to suit, but we’ve a slight query on her ability to run out a strong 2500m. Another that you can’t completely put a line through though.
Ethereum Girl was beaten 4L by Getta Good Feeling at the Wakeful and didn’t make up much ground on the straight. We don’t see her turning the tables here.
Sheeza Diva looks well held, although coming back to soft ground might see some improvement.
Strictly Business was behind only Getta Good Feeling at the Wakeful on Saturday and made ground down the straight like a horse that will run out the 2500m. Third-up, she should be close to peak fitness and looks overs to us at the $10 currently on offer.
After Summer is a winner from her only run here at Flemington and wasn’t far off Spicy Lu at her last start. Not a lot of exposed form to go on with only the four career starts to date, but if she handles the soft going (or we get a track upgrade) she could be a value player for exotics.
Zouclaire is still a maiden and likely won’t find this any easier.
Voting Rights was gapped by Getta Good Feeling on Saturday and while she should run out the 2500m, we don’t have her finishing in front.
Morisu Ojo has a lot of work to do to be competitive here.
Classic Gem hit the line reasonably well behind Spicy Lu and Just A Journey last start, making us think she’ll run the 2500m quite well. She’s drawn marginally better here in barrier 9, and if she can stay a little more forward in the run she might surprise a few at the business end.
Janey Bopper steps up from a Warrnambool maiden and we don’t think even a 9kg weight drop will help her.
It’s hard to go past Getta Good Feeling here if she can handle the quick back-up, with a perfect barrier draw and the in-form Mark Zahra taking the steer. Strictly Business and Classic Gem are two that we’ll be watching closely and might be some interesting value plays if the favourite fails to fire.
Good luck and happy punting.