The 2025 Lexus Melbourne Cup is nearly here and Melbourne’s weather is doing its best to keep everyone guessing about Tuesday’s track conditions. With 20-40mm of rain around in Melbourne today and the chance of some more showers tomorrow, it’s likely that we’ll at least start the day on a Heavy 8, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see it stay that way.
The rail moves out 2m for the entire circuit after Derby Day, although we expect to still see a few coming away from the inside lanes down the straight. What surprises will this year’s race have for us?
Al Riffa is our topweight and will need to carry 59kg from barrier 19. He’s in great recent form with two wins from his last two starts, will handle the track conditions and should run the 3200m out strongly, but the barrier makes it tricky. Still, we can’t completely rule him out.
Buckaroo looks nicely set for this, almost causing a big upset over Via Sistina in the Cox Plate last start over 2040m. He’s drawn nicely in barrier 12 and our biggest question is how well he runs out the 3200m, having finished a 3.5L ninth in last year’s race. We’re thinking maybe another top 10 finish here.
Arapaho doesn’t seem to be going well enough this prep to trouble them here.
Vauban has taken our money at least once before, and we’re going to keep it in our pocket this time.
Chevalier Rose would need to lift significantly here to be a threat.
Always back a grey on a wet track, or so they say. Presage Nocturne looms as a definite danger here, although he’d be only the third grey to ever win the Melbourne Cup. He’ll appreciate some cut in the track, will run the 3200m strongly and draws very well in barrier 9. Hard to toss.
Middle Earth will likely stay the 3200m, but would have to improve based on his recent form to trouble them here. The wet track is another question mark.
Meydaan is another potentially cruelled by the barrier draw, getting gate 22 in a field of 24. Limited wet track form to judge, and has only won two races from fourteen career starts. We’re prepared to risk him here.
We’ll be watching the market on Absurde very closely in the lead up to Tuesday. Fifth in last year’s Cup, he’s drawn well in barrier 4 and boasts a strong second-up record. If we were looking for negatives, it would be his age and where he ends up in the run. Perhaps another top 10?
Flatten The Curve will eat up the 3200m and can handle a wet track, but draws horribly in 17. Exotic value?
Could Land Legend be going any worse?
Smokin’ Romans would need to lift here.
Changingoftheguard looks outclassed.
Jamie Melham is looking to be only the second female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup on Half Yours. The early market favourite, he’s very hard to knock based on recent form. Drawn well, loves the wet, and gets around with only 53kg here. Distance is still a big query, and favourites don’t get up all that often, but we think he’ll be there at the finish.
More Felons would need luck.
We’re not sure how to read Onesmoothoperator. He was fair at best in the UK prior to coming out to Australia, before putting them away in his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. Perhaps top 10.
Further could do anything here in only his ninth career start. That doesn’t give us a lot of form to go on, and he’s got limited wet track exposure. His form suggests that he will run out the 3200m, he’s drawn nicely in barrier 7, and drops 6.5kg for this. Possible each-way value?
Parchment Party would need to do something special here.
Athabascan ran a close second behind Onesmoothoperator last start, although his form wasn’t great before that. Happy to risk.
Goodie Two Shoes will be out to prove that mares can win the Melbourne Cup, and she has a bit going for her. She won’t know herself after dropping nearly 10kg in weight, will stay the 3200m, and a lot could hinge on where she gets to in the run. We can’t completely rule her out.
River Of Stars seems to get better as she steps out in distance. A decent barrier and reasonable wet track form could see her finish in the front half of the field.
Royal Supremacy doesn’t mind the wet and is finding a reasonable bit of form lately. Needs to overcome jumping from barrier 21, but could feature in wider exotics.
Torranzino will need to overcome barrier 18 to feature here, but gets in very nicely at the weights with only 51kg to carry. Celine Gaudray isn’t a noted big race rider but she gets her chance here.
Valiant King rounds out the field and is another with a lightweight 51kg. He’s finding some nice form lately, is drawn well in barrier 10 and Jye McNeil keeps the ride. Hard to fault.
As always, we think this year’s Melbourne Cup is a very tough race to pick. The biggest question at the moment is probably how wet the track will be at 3pm on Tuesday, but it would be hard to see it better than a Soft 6 at best.
We’re going with Valiant King on top here, just ahead of River Of Stars and Half Yours. Presage Nocturne rounds out our top four. Absurde, Buckaroo, Flatten The Curve, and Further our next best and we wouldn’t be leaving them out of the exotics.
Have a great day punters, and good luck!