Caulfield hosts the Group 1 Sportsbet Oakleigh Plate (1100m) on Saturday. The rail is +4m the entire circuit and with warm and windy weather forecast for Melbourne, we might see the current Good 4 track upgraded. Runners will be faced with a headwind from the start to the home bend, so we will ideally be looking for runners drawn inside who can find a spot just off the pace.
I Am Me ticks those boxes, jumping from barrier 2 and likely to find herself in the second or third pair in running. She hasn’t had a lot of exposure to Caulfield but boasts a strong first-up and distance record, and we think she’ll be in the front half of the field at the finish. Weight could be a telling factor.
Estriella has early market support and its easy to see why. Three first-up starts for two wins, 100% strike rate at Caulfield as well as the 1100m, and if she can find some cover behind likely leaders Insurrection and Golden Boom, she looks right in the money to our eye.
We’re not sure that Golden Boom is going to be benefited by his usual pacesetting style here with a wide draw and northerly wind, although he’s bound to put up a good sight early.
Ostraka will have to be great here, first up and drawn barrier 16. Hard to say where he ends up in running, but there doesn’t look to be a huge amount of early speed in the race, and he might find a handy spot just forward of midfield. If he can jump well and find cover, it wouldn’t surprise us to see him in the top 4.
Ray Magnerio presents here second up (2:1-1) and he’s sure to have some fans. He won by a nose at this track and distance last start and faces a very similar test again here. Hard to knock on form, and we’d be crazy to leave him out of any exotics.
Insurrection was just claimed by Ray Magnerio last time out, but this is a stronger race and we think the $31 price currently on offer is about right.
Jimmysstar is likely to go back from a wide draw and will be coming home hard late. We don’t have him on top, but he could feature in exotics if he finds the right run.
Hard To Say looks tested against this field.
Sghirripa will have to find something first up and likely settling worse than midfield on the fence, and we’re prepared to risk him here.
Ashford Street looks well held.
Headwall is an interesting gelding who hasn’t set the world on fire in recent trials. We think he’d be better positioned with some give in the track.
Prairie Flower gets the benefit of a light weight at 52kg, but barrier 1 and back of the field running won’t do her any favours.
Sans Doute will need to really lift from her last campaign and looks unlikely here.
She’s Bulletproof presents here for race 6 of her campaign and had a flying 2.8L win last time out at Sandown. She may well get a similar run in transit here settling in the third or fourth pair, and while we don’t think she’s got the class of some here, she’s very consistent and rarely misses a place. Definite top 4 chance.
Arabian Summer looks well suited here, with perhaps the only negative we can see is the sticky draw in barrier 15. She only has to carry 50kg, and if she can get across and find cover early without getting too far back in the pack, we think she’ll be thereabouts at the finish. One to watch.
Espionage rounds out the field of 16 and we do not have much of a form line on him after only four career starts to date. From what we have seen he looks the real deal and won’t know himself with only 50kg on his back, a big drop from his last start 56.5kg in heavy going. He’s coming off a long 322-day spell but has been trialling well, and if he can bring his 2YO form on Saturday he would have to go very close.
This looks a very tough race to pick on paper and good luck to the punters who get a collect here! We can make a pretty reasonable case for five or six runners and as always, this might come down to being able to find that perfect run in transit or having a gap open at just the right moment.
We’re going to put Estriella on top, very narrowly ahead of Arabian Summer (barrier 15 hurts). We’ll definitely be watching Espionage throughout his campaign and would have I Am Me right up there if she wasn’t the top weight. And if he can overcome a horrible gate, Ostraka could be value at nice odds.
Enjoy the day, and best of luck finding a few winners.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au