The racing is starting to heat up with the Melbourne Cup Carnival kicking off this Saturday at Flemington and the running of the Howden Victoria Derby. We should have a perfect day for racing with the current forecast for 21 degrees and light winds, following some likely showers on Friday.
With the rail in the true position for Saturday the racing should be pretty even, although there’s always the danger of getting trapped wide early in bigger fields. We’ll be looking closely at those jumping from the middle barriers and who can find a spot forward of midfield in the running.
Observer is one that ticks those boxes, jumping from barrier 4 and in good recent form having led all the way at The Valley last start. Hard to knock on form, but hard to get excited at $2.15.
Highvol drops 3kg here after being edged out late at Geelong last start, although we suspect barrier 15 won’t be doing him any favours.
Autumn Mystery is another whose chances would be a lot better if he wasn’t drawn in 17. Form looks good and he should run out the 2500m, but will he have to go back and do a mountain of work late?
Miewa has some good recent form, just going down to Autumn Mystery over 2000m last start at Caulfield. Our knock is that he likes to go back from the start, which might be hard to overcome here in a big field.
Options beat out Miewa two starts back at Flemington, then didn’t have any luck from a wide draw latest at The Valley. Drawn nicely in barrier 7, does he have the finish to come from the back of the field?
Providence jumps from gate 12 and that draw could harm his chances. Another get back, run-on type that we don’t think will be well suited here.
Azazel could do anything in only start number four here. The son of Shocking will look to jump and run, and we think will be giving them something to catch late. Could be each-way value at $26.
Arcora doesn’t look to be going well enough.
O’Sheamus could turn a few heads, jumping from barrier 5 and stepping out to the 2500m. The question for us is just how far back he gets in the run, but if he starts well he might be value.
Amazake is drawn well and seems to be racing better as he steps out further in distance, and is drawn quite nicely in barrier 6. Yet to break his maiden and this would be a very tough race for him to change that.
Engine Of War got swamped late over 2000m at Caulfield last start, giving us some doubts at the 2500m.
Matsuda might have a hard time getting in and finding cover before the first turn, and we’re happy to watch him.
One Step Closer would have to find plenty here to be in it at the finish.
Savisanta is another maiden, although he’s never finished out of the placings. It’s much harder here though and we’re prepared to risk him.
McWoody doesn’t excite us from barrier 16.
Deal Done Fast jumps from the inside gate and might find himself shuffled back to worse than midfield. Not for us.
Arabian Prince draws widest in barrier 20 and would need everything to go right from out there.
Freddie Bassett is likely to find this tough.
Crack A Deel and Super Paradise would shock.
This is a pretty tough race to pick in our opinion, with a few live chances. Observer is a well-deserved early favourite, although we’re finding it hard to have him as short as $2.15. We like the look of Azazel and O’Sheamus at attractive odds, and Options if he can get a clear run late. Good luck to quaddie punters here – go one out on Observer, or wide?
Good luck and remember to gamble responsibly.