We finish up the Melbourne Cup Carnival today with the TAB Champions Stakes Day and the running of the TAB Champions Stakes over 2000m. Melbourne’s forecast is for cool temperatures and rain, so we might see a downgrade of the current Soft 5 track during the day. The rail is +9m the entire circuit after […]
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Thursday sees us back at Flemington for Crown Oaks Day and the running of the G1 Oaks for three-year-old fillies. The track is currently rated a Soft 5 and we might even see an upgrade during the day with relatively warm weather forecast for Melbourne. The rail is +6m for the entire circuit after two
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The 2025 Lexus Melbourne Cup is nearly here and Melbourne’s weather is doing its best to keep everyone guessing about Tuesday’s track conditions. With 20-40mm of rain around in Melbourne today and the chance of some more showers tomorrow, it’s likely that we’ll at least start the day on a Heavy 8, and it wouldn’t
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The racing is starting to heat up with the Melbourne Cup Carnival kicking off this Saturday at Flemington and the running of the Howden Victoria Derby. We should have a perfect day for racing with the current forecast for 21 degrees and light winds, following some likely showers on Friday. With the rail in the
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We’re racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday with the 105th running of the Ladbrokes Cox Plate over 2040m. The rail will be in the true position for the entire circuit, with the track currently rated a Good 4. There might be a few showers around in Melbourne, but hopefully not until later in the evening
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What Is a Saver Bet? A saver bet is a smaller stake placed on a secondary runner to break even if your main selection loses. It’s often used as an emotional hedge — but it can dilute your edge. Why It’s Risky When It Might Be Useful Example You back a $6.00 overlay with a
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What Are Market Movements? Market movements refer to changes in betting odds leading up to a race. These shifts are driven by betting volume, insider information, syndicate activity, and public sentiment. Understanding these movements helps punters interpret where the “smart money” is going. Types of Movements Movement Type Meaning Implication for Punters Plunge Odds shorten
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Why Tracking Is Non-Negotiable Think of punting like running a business. Without tracking bets, ROI, and overlay performance, you’re guessing — and successful punters don’t guess. What to Track Metric Why It Matters Date & Race Contextual trends (e.g. weekends) Runner & Odds Performance relative to overlay Stake & Result Cash flow and bankroll health
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Why Midweek Racing Offers Value Midweek races — often held in provincial towns — are rich in betting opportunity for one key reason: inefficient markets. These events draw less public attention, smaller fields, and more automated bookmaker pricing, creating fertile ground for overlay identification. Key Tracks to Watch State Value Tracks NSW Grafton, Moruya, Dubbo
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What’s the Real Difference? While bookmakers and exchanges both offer betting markets, they operate on fundamentally different models. In Australia, Betfair dominates the exchange space, allowing punters to bet against each other rather than against a bookie. Feature Bookmakers Exchanges (e.g. Betfair) Odds Set by the bookie Determined by market supply/demand Lay Betting ❌ No
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