We are back at Caulfield on Saturday for Thousand Guineas Day and what looks to be a great day of racing. Temperatures are forecast to hit 35 degrees with moderate northerly winds and the rail is +6m the entire circuit. The tight turns of Caulfield tend to favour inside barriers and with that in mind, let us see if we can find winners for the day.
Race 7 is the feature Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) and there is early market support for Aeliana and James McDonald. She does look good on paper after a dominant 3.5L win over 1600m at Flemington last start, while being eased up over the line.
We do have a few small queries with her likely to get well back in the run from barrier 11 and how she will handle the confines of Caulfield, but it is hard to see many others giving her a serious challenge. Dominetta is likely to be hunting for a share of the early lead from barrier 9 and could be an each way value play.
Next up we have Race 9, Group 1 Sportsbet Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m). We expect there will be a lot of market support for Jimmysstar who is 3:3 at Caulfield and 2:2 for the track and distance, but for us the draw in barrier 1 is a big negative.
Instead, we are looking to Another Wil and Jamie Kah, who should have a very nice run in transit jumping from barrier 5. He boasts a 75% strike rate at Caulfield, has never finished out of the money over 1400m, and has six wins from seven starts on a Good track. War Machine and Gentleman Roy are likely to keep things interesting for a long way.
We round out the day with Race 10, Group 3 Sportsbet How Now Stakes (1200m). We look to have a competitive field of mares for the race and we think early favourite Niance is the one to beat. Jumping from barrier 7 she should be able to control the race from the front, which is what you want over the Caulfield 1200m.
She is a last start track winner, has three wins and a minor placing from five starts over the distance and is 4:2-1 on Good going. Danny’s St Darci could be an interesting value play if she can jump well and push up along the fence.
Enjoy the day and happy punting.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au