Racing returns to Caulfield on Saturday for the opening of the spring season. The rail is true the entire circuit, and despite a few showers around in Melbourne we should be racing on a Good 4 track. We normally like the look of runners who have had past success on the track, and statistics show that a midfield sit is often the place to be. Let us see if we can find a few winners.
Commencing the day with Race 1, Sportsbet Race Replays Handicap (1400m), and we are sticking with the in-form mare Lovazou. She is having a fantastic prep with three wins from three starts, including just pipping Alectrona on the line here last time out.
Winning jockey Carleen Hefel (3:3) keeps the ride, combining with trainer Danny O’Brien for a 50% strike rate recently. Two wins from three starts at the track and distance, can seemingly handle any conditions thrown at her, and should be hard fit at start number four.
Perhaps our only query is jumping from barrier 1, but there does not look to be a lot of speed to the outside so we are hoping she will settle nicely in the first half. Favourite Vivy Air will likely drift back from a wide draw, and the Caulfield 1400m doesn’t generally favour the backmarkers.
We move on to Race 3, Evergreen Turf Handicap (1800m), and we are going the way of the favourite Rise To It. The Ciaron Maher-trained gelding generally takes a bit to come to hand and start five for the prep looks ideal here. After a few recent jockey changes they seem to have settled on Jamie Kah to hold the ride, and she is travelling well with a 21% strike rate over the last 30 days.
Despite not having raced at Caulfield previously he is two from four over the distance, likes to run on top of the ground and should get a nice midfield run from barrier 1. Mathew the danger, although recent throat issues have us looking elsewhere.
Race 8 is the Tile Importer Heatherlie Stakes over the relatively unusual 1700m, and there is a bit of class amongst the 14-starter field.
Despite having his tenth start for the prep, the Hayes brothers seem to have found the winning formula for Rise At Dawn and we are tipping him to keep going on with it here. He is almost untouchable when he can get to the front and control the tempo, and only Que Tempesta and Positivity look like they might go with him here.
Mick Dee keeps the steer, he’s 1:1 at Caulfield, 7:4-1 on a good track and a hefty 55%-win rate. Stablemate Que Tempesta could be the danger if he can bring his northern hemisphere form, although we expect him to be better suited out in distance.
Happy punting and enjoy your day.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au