Why Frame Your Own Market?
Framing your own market is the cornerstone of professional betting. It allows you to assess each runner’s chance independently of the bookmaker’s odds, giving you control over your betting decisions and helping you identify genuine overlays.
Unlike bookmakers, who build in a margin (often 115–130%), your personal market can be framed to 100% or even less, giving you a mathematical edge.
Step-by-Step Guide
- Rate Each Horse (e.g. 0–100 scale)
Assign a score based on form, conditions, jockey, trainer, barrier, and other factors.
- Convert Ratings to Percentages
Add up all scores and divide each horse’s score by the total to get its win probability.
- Convert Percentages to Odds
Use the formula:
$odds = 1/percentage
Example: 25% = 1/25% = $4.00 odds
- Compare to Market Odds
If your rated odds are lower than the market odds, you’ve found an overlay.
Case Study: Mama Kin at Ballarat
| Horse | Rated Odds | Market Odds | Overlay? |
| Mama Kin | $3.50 | $6.50 | ✅ Yes |
| My Michelle | $3.50 | $5.50 | ✅ Yes |
| Don’t Cry | $4.75 | $3.50 | ❌ No |
Backing Mama Kin and My Michelle yields a strong edge. A $20 bet on Mama Kin returns $130 — a profit of $110.