Racing returns to The Valley on Saturday for Dominant Saturday. The rail is true the entire circuit, and the track is currently rated a Soft 6. With Melbourne having a couple of moderate days, we might even see that upgraded to a Soft 5 or better by the time racing starts.
There is a big field of 16 going around in Race 3, Luna Hand Care Handicap (2040m), and its difficult to pick a winner. We have settled on Lincoln Rocks to hopefully overcome a terrible draw and hit the line late.
He raced well against the pattern for third last time out at Sandown, and the step up to 2040m looks to suit him well. He is down in class, has a 50% strike rate on soft tracks, and should be ready to fire third up.
We stay at the 2040m for Race 7, Ranvet Travis Harrison Cup. Irish import Alder is having his second Australian start, stepping up from a 1700m fifth at Caulfield last time out. In what looks to be an even race we would like him to be priced a bit better than the $4.20 currently on offer, but we think he should be running well.
Alder is 1:1 over the distance, has had two starts second up for a win and a minor placing, and Michael Dee (24% strike rate the last 30 days) is a great booking to ride. Barrier 5 should see him sit much closer to the speed here, and he should be right in the finish if he is good enough.
We round out the day with Race 8, Dominant Home Products Handicap (1600m). We like the look of Regal Zeus here, coming off a gutsy 3.5L win on a heavy track last start at Sandown.
He has drawn perfectly in barrier 3 and should get the run of the race leading on the rail. After a number of recent jockey changes trainer John McArdle has settled on Daniel Stackhouse (4:3) to keep the ride, and he should appreciate the cut out of the ground. The in-form Margie’s Boy could be the danger, although he would have to jump well from barrier 12 to get a run to suit.
Happy punting and enjoy the day.
As published on Thoroughbrednews.com.au